Conflicts of Interest

What’s really driving the world’s conflicts? What are we missing? And what questions should we be asking? Every week, and sometimes in between, Conflicts of Interest goes beyond the headlines to challenge assumptions, unpack the data, and make sense of what’s happening around the world. Next week marks our 50th episode! From the biggest international crises to the stories that barely make the news, Conflicts of Interest brings together ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, a world-lea...

France averages 20 protests a day. Right now it's 65 — and 1 in 4 is a riot. No spin. Just the data. Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills explain why French school funding protests turned into 43 days of national unrest across 800 locations, with mass arrests, shuttered schools, and Yellow Vests back on the streets. Why austerity, debt, and collapsing public services broke Macron's centrist bargain — and why Le Pen benefits without answers. Plus: Yemen’s renewed Houthi-Saudi fighting and $6B...

Houthi missiles are hitting Saudi airports as Ethiopia and Eritrea move closer to war. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh, Bron Mills and Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru examine more than 100 Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia in just 30 days, including attacks on airports, and the escalating threat of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. From the Houthis' campaign against Saudi Arabia and threats to Red Sea shipping to Eritrean troops entering Tigray, Ethiopia's am...

Ethiopia’s forces have retaken Mekelle — but the fighting in the north is far from over, as regional relationships are also shifting across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, with Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan renewing ties. Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined again by ACLED’s Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack what comes next: the future of the TPLF and TDF, Eritrea’s role in the conflict, Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea, and the growing risk of fighting crossing Ethiop...

Fighting is escalating across northern Ethiopia. Is the seven-group anti-government alliance already falling apart? Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the TPLF offensive, divisions within the rebel coalition, and what Eritrea's and Egypt's involvement means for the next phase of the conflict in Ethiopia. We break down why the Djibouti trade corridor — Ethiopia's vital economic lifeline — could shape what happens next. This episode provi...

In this emergency episode, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED Senior Analyst for East Africa Dr Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the sudden surge in fighting in northern Ethiopia. What has changed? Who is fighting whom? And is Ethiopia heading back towards full-scale war? They break down the latest developments in Tigray, the new alliances forming against Abiy Ahmed’s government, and why the fighting cannot be understood in isolation. From Eritrea and Egypt to Saudi Arab...

Trump, Cartels, and Fuel Prices: Noise or News? There’s a lot happening in the world. But how much of it actually matters? This week, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills introduce Noise or News? — a new game sorting the headlines worth paying attention to from those making more noise than impact. They bounce around the world: from a new opposition coalition in Ethiopia and the rise of Germany’s AfD, to Mexico’s changing cartel violence, Trump’s latest fight with the media, and protests over fuel ...

Who are the Houthis and what do they want? As the Houthis advance in Yemen and Saudi Arabia takes missile and drone hits, the forces meant to stop them are collapsing — with some units reportedly made up of nearly 80% ghost soldiers who exist on paper but not on the battlefield. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to explain what is actually happening in Yemen: who the Houthis (Ansar Allah) are, what they want, why Iran d...

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to break down extreme violence worldwide. From cartel massacres in Mexico to gang killings in Haiti's Kenshoff, Houthi attacks around Yemen and Saudi Arabia, renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine, to protest crackdowns in Iran — why does some violence dominate the news while far deadlier crises are ignored? We cover: Why Ukraine ranks #1 for fatalities, but India, Nigeri...

The US is using missiles and air-defence interceptors across multiple fronts — from the war with Iran and protecting bases in the Middle East to years of support for Ukraine. But can American weapons production keep up with demand? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED President and CEO Clionadh Raleigh joins Bron Mills to ask whether the US is really running short of missiles — and what dwindling stocks could mean for Ukraine, Europe and American deterrence against Russia and China...

Donald Trump says the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is threatening ships, US interests and countries that support Washington. The Houthis are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. And cyber attacks are bringing the conflict much closer to home. ACLED President and CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills discuss who really controls one of the world’s most important shipping routes — and whether the Gulf is becoming the centre of a much bigger global st...

Who can still rely on the United States — and which countries are building new alliances instead? From Donald Trump’s approach to Kim Jong Un and South Korea, to the growing partnership between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the global alliance map is shifting. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, prof Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills connect the dots between some of the biggest geopolitical developments shaping the world: Russia’s threats against Britain, the war in Ukraine, shifting...

India’s ‘Cockroach Janta Party’ protest movement has claimed a major victory, forcing the resignation of the country’s education minister — the first cabinet minister to resign under public pressure in 12 years of Narendra Modi’s government. ACLED’s Pearl Pandya joins Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills to ask why this movement succeeded where others have failed, whether India’s young protesters can turn their first victory into lasting political change, and why they deliberately distanced ...

Two years after Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election — and months after Nicolás Maduro was removed from power — who is really running the country? Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED’s Tiziano Breda to trace how the contested election helped pave the way for Maduro’s downfall and examine the uneasy system that has replaced him. Delcy Rodríguez remains in power, the opposition is still waiting for a transition, and Washington holds enormous leverage over Venezuela’s oil industry....

What does Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian cargo ship tell us about the expanding war — and was it really a message to Donald Trump? Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack why Ukraine may be taking the fight beyond Russia, what Iran’s threat of retaliation means, and where the Houthis fit into the conflict. Plus, after an attack at a Pride event in Berlin, they look at Europe’s changing terror threat, the rise of less sophisticated, lone-actor attacks, and the difficult quest...

While political leaders frame left-wing extremism as the rising domestic terror threat, the actual data (who commits violence, against whom, and why) points in a more uncomfortable direction. This week on Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down what ACLED's data reveals about political violence in the United States and beyond: Is the far left genuinely becoming a greater security threat, or is the danger being overstated for political gain? What does the data ac...

This week on Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Myanmar expert, Su Mon, to examine why Myanmar's civil war won't end anytime soon despite sweeping early resistance gains. They break down the fractured battlefield of hundreds of armed groups, the military stalemate between the junta and opposition forces, and how drones, improvised aircraft, and shifting alliances are reshaping the conflict. The conversation explores China's role as the count...

This week on Conflict of Interests, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. The conversation explores the roles of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and asks why geopolitics ...

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push? Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — an...

The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz matters, and what this supposed progress really amounts to. They look at whether Trump is t...

The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragile than they appear. They also discuss the latest tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, why some ...

The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room, funding factions, brokering deals, and projecting power in ways that Western foreign policy simply isn't built t...

The peace talks continue between Iran and the U.S, but who actually wants a deal, and what does "winning" even mean for each side? Professor Clionadh Raleigh chats with Bron Mills about the real strategic interests at play: what the US needs, what Iran's leadership can actually accept, and what the regional picture looks like if talks collapse or succeed. Then: what is the point from here? With negotiations fragile and red lines on all sides, we assess what a credible outcome looks like, and ...

On this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills catch up on Day 88 of the Iran war — a moment defined more by paralysis than progress. They unpack Iran's internet blackout, finally ending after months of restrictions, what it reveals about Tehran's grip on internal dissent, and why the latest round of US-Iran peace talks remains trapped in a web of competing agendas. Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi, the Gulf states are pulling in different dir...

The world is moving so quickly it is becoming harder to know where to look first. Iran remains on edge around the Strait of Hormuz. Ebola is spreading through one of the DRC’s most militarized regions. And attacks on places of worship are exposing the messy overlap between extremism, antisemitism, misogyny, and political violence. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills try to make sense of a week where every crisis seems to be accelerating at once...

As headlines swing wildly between ceasefire talks, missile strikes, diplomatic breakthroughs and fresh retaliation, this episode of Conflicts of Interest explores the growing sense of global confusion surrounding modern conflict. ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Bron Mills to unpack the “attention war” shaping how conflicts are understood online, where algorithms, viral misinformation and nonstop breaking news are increasingly competing with verified reporting and nuance. From Ir...

Ukraine has produced millions of drones and lost thousands more — and that hard-won expertise is now in high demand. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Ukraine expert Witold Stupnicki unpack how Kyiv is exporting its drone warfare knowledge to Gulf states, why a $50 drone can outmanoeuvre a $3 million missile, and what that means for the future of conflict. From frozen front lines to Saudi air bases, the drone revolution is reshaping...

As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s borders. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLE...

An assassination attempt on the US president. A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali. Rising violence in Chad. Continued fighting in Lebanon. As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unp...

JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram. These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism. Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and entrench themselves across vast areas of the region. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, AC...

Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher. As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf. In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED expert Bassel Doueik delve into the decisions fueling ...

A ceasefire has been announced in the Iran war — but is this really de-escalation, or a strategic defeat for the United States and its allies? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down the fragile Iran ceasefire, the unanswered questions around the deal, and why control of the Strait of Hormuz could leave Tehran in a stronger position than before. They unpack what the reported terms may mean for Iran’s nuclear programme, Gulf secu...

President Trump said the Iran war objectives ‘near completion’ in a televised speech last night - But what does that actually mean? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh unpacks the latest developments in the Iran war with ACLED’s Media Manager, Bron Mills — from Iran’s leverage over key shipping routes to the limits of Israel’s decapitation strategy. They also explore how the conflict is reshaping global dynamics, with ripple effects reaching Russia and Ukraine...

The Iran war took another turn this weekend as Yemen’s Houthi movement officially entered the conflict, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the fight. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola to unpack what the Houthis’ decision means for the region. Why did they intervene now after weeks of restraint? Why target Israel instead of the Red Sea? And what...

One month into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the focus is often on the battlefield. But wars rarely stay confined to one region. In this special extended edition of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED founder and CEO Clionadh Raleigh brings together regional experts from across the organisation to examine how the conflict is already reshaping dynamics far beyond the Middle East. From Lebanon and Iraq to the Gulf and beyond, the panel explores how the war is spreading through a...

As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran approaches its first month, the question many analysts are now asking is whether the conflict could escalate beyond airstrikes. With thousands of U.S. troops moving into the region and growing speculation about operations around the Strait of Hormuz, talk of a possible ground invasion is no longer hypothetical. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the headlines dominating the media: Trump’...

As the war around Iran continues to widen, attention is turning to the network of militias linked to Tehran across the region. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED experts Dr Luca Nevola and Bassel Doueik to unpack what’s happening on two key fronts: Yemen and Lebanon. Why has Hezbollah escalated from Lebanon, while the Houthis appear to be holding back? What role do these groups play in Iran’s regional strategy, and how might their decisions sha...

The Iran war is more than a regional conflict. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Bron Mills and ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh examine how the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States is expanding beyond the battlefield, affecting global energy markets, regional alliances, oil supply and the wider international system. They discuss the growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where threats to shipping and oil supply are raising global economic concerns, as well as the continue...

As strikes between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. What began as an exchange of missile attacks is quickly evolving into a broader regional confrontation with global consequences. In this emergency episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh and media relations manager Bron Mills break down what the first ten days of the war reveal about strategy, escalation, and the risks ahead. They discuss why this conflict has s...

What happens when strikes, assassinations, and internal unrest collide inside one of the Middle East's most powerful states? In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills break down the rapidly escalating crisis in Iran — from US and Israeli strikes on military infrastructure and senior leadership, to instability rippling into Iraq and Kurdish regions. As insurgent groups seize new opportunities and regional tensi...

What happens when the killing of Iran’s supreme leader sends shockwaves across an already volatile region? In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills to unpack the explosive developments in Iran and the wider Middle East following this weekend’s strikes. What do leadership decapitation, regional retaliation, and rising tensions mean for the trajectory of conflict — and how far could the fallout spread? T...

What happens when the death of a cartel leader reshapes violence across an entire country? In this special episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd are joined by ACLED Senior analyst for Latin America, Sandra Pellegrini to unpack the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes — “El Mencho” — and the power vacuum already fuelling violence in Mexico. What comes next for cartel control, security forces, and Mexico’s wider conflict landscape? Watch tomorrow’s ...

Ukraine: Frozen frontlines. Frozen homes. Four years into the war, territorial change is minimal, but renewed strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left civilians freezing. Ranked the deadliest country in the world by ACLED’s Conflict Index, the conflict is increasingly shaped by drones and attacks far from the battlefield. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd break down what people still don’t understand about Ukraine today. #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine4YearsOn Talk to ...

What happens when Gulf rivalries travel far beyond the Middle East — and into Africa’s most fragile regions? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack how Saudi Arabia and the UAE are shaping conflicts across the Horn of Africa, from Yemen to Sudan, often through non-state actors, proxy forces, and economic leverage. The conversation explores why Saudi Arabia is frequently framed as a stabilising power, how the UAE’s interventions have c...

Who decides war and peace in Gaza, and how much power does political leadership hold? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd examine the rise of the Board of Peace and ask whether global decision-making over conflict is being centralised, with Donald Trump taking the lead. Using Gaza as a reference point, the conversation explores how current peace efforts are shaped by political leadership choices, imposed timelines, economic fixes, and eli...

President Trump said his New Years Resolution was "peace on earth" ... others suggest it's "world domination" The US president told the New York Times that there is only one thing that can limit his global power: his own morality, adding that he does not need international law. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack what it means when global power is framed as a personal choice rather than a political or legal constraint. They explore...

2025 marked a turning point in global conflict — not because violence suddenly appeared, but because it reached a scale, spread, and persistence that now feels like a new normal. In this year-end episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd look back at what 2025 revealed about political violence around the world. Drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, they unpack where violence was most concentrated, how it evolved across regions, and why civilians f...

With help from President Trump and Nicki Minaj, recent headlines have raised alarm about the safety of Christian communities in Nigeria, with claims that Christians are being deliberately targeted amid worsening insecurity. These narratives have travelled quickly … shaping political debate, international responses, and public understanding. But do they reflect the full picture of violence in the country? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Cai...

Comedian Simon Brodkin once asked, ‘If I had a phone, am I more or less likely to make a call than someone without one?’ In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack the narratives around gun violence and political violence in the United States, and interrogate where they come from. Drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, the hosts explore the distinction between political violence and criminal gun violence, and why the two are so...

Across the world, Gen Z are showing up in the streets. From mass demonstrations to sudden protest waves, young people are repeatedly mobilizing against governments they see as unresponsive, corrupt, or simply irrelevant to their lives. But a harder question lingers beneath the headlines: do these protests actually achieve anything? In this episode, Prof. Caitriona Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd discuss the political impact of contemporary Gen Z protest. Pushing back against both romanticized n...